Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
At the PMO, policies are framed by factoring in analytical perspectives, implications, sustainability, and other dimensions.
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
Global firm Accenture's fourth quarter results prove that the worst is behind for the Indian information technology (IT) sector, said analysts on Friday (September 27). While the pace and the broadness of recovery is debatable, they said Accenture's results and revenue growth guidance for the next financial year (FY25) reduce downside risks for Indian IT companies.
'What's sad today is that there are so many people who cannot find work, not because the country is devoid of that opportunity, but because we are not doing enough in the country.'
The outage raised broader concerns about the dependency on a few large tech companies controlling critical platforms.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
US-based Citigroup is likely to allocate more global roles to India than to any other centre it operates in due to the country's strong talent pool, said Jane Fraser, chief executive officer of Citigroup, on Wednesday in an interaction with CNBC-TV18. Fraser also expressed confidence that India will remain the world's fastest-growing economy.
After HPCL, the government headhunter struggled to find a suitable candidate for the top job at Bharat Petroleum, as most applicants were narrow specialists lacking multidisciplinary experience needed to run a large organisation. The Public Enterprise Selection Board (PESB) last month interviewed a dozen candidates including BPCL director (finance) Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta and its director (refineries) S Khanna but found none suitable for the job of chairman and managing director of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), according to a PESB order.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
Why is Shailesh Chandra, managing director of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility, not worried about the competition?
After registering a net profit of Rs 25.1 crore in Q3FY25 and consolidated revenues growing by 7 per cent on a like-for-like basis, Siddharth Mittal, chief executive officer (CEO) and managing director, Biocon, told Sohini Das/Business Standard in a virtual interaction that local manufacturing in the US is a trade off between cost and qualifying to do business there.
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market this month so far owing to increasing allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings and elevated valuation of domestic stocks. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflows has significantly reduced compared to October, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) withdrew Rs 94,017 crore ($11.2 billion) on a net basis.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
'Given the worries about sluggish growth, rising interest rates and likely volatility, it's quite logical to infer that the SIP route could be the preferred way of investing.'
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Aircraft maker Airbus on Thursday announced awarding a contract to Indian company Dynamatic Technologies for manufacturing all the doors for its next-generation narrow body A220 planes, giving a boost to the 'Make in India' initiative. While financial details were not disclosed, Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said it is one of the single-largest export contracts for an Indian aerospace manufacturing company and emphasised that the country is becoming a destination for aircraft component manufacturing activities.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
'Every Indian should move to an EV, and the government should not buy any fossil fuel cars. The government should become the first driver of EV adoption.'
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
Experts say a lot of new wealth is being generated by promoters selling their stake.
The year-to-date returns are 13.33 per cent for Indian funds, compared to 11.66 per cent for emerging market funds overall.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Foreign investors made a significant turnaround and injected over Rs 1,500 crore into Indian equities in February, reversing the massive outflows seen in the preceding month, primarily due to robust corporate earnings and positive economic growth. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to be bullish on the debt markets as they put in over Rs 22,419 crore during the month under review, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead to March, the outlook for FPI flow appears promising, provided the current economic trajectory and corporate performance sustain their positive momentum, potentially continuing to attract foreign investment into Indian equities, Mayank Mehraa, smallcase manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha, said.
'We plan to launch new initiatives, including cash flow-based lending, to ensure borrowers are not burdened and can access funds more quickly.'
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
Indian Institute of Management Bangalore is offering special digital courses taught by their professors.
The rising market poses a dilemma for investors on whether to continue buying, reduce equity holding, or exit equities altogether.
The market regulator's newly proposed selection criteria for the over Rs 400-trillion-a-day futures and options (F&O) market could pave the way for the entry of popular stocks such as Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India, Jio Financial Services, Zomato, Paytm, DMart, and Adani Energy into the derivatives segment. The Indian derivatives market, which accounts for most of the trading volumes, could see big churn with over two dozen exits from the current list of 182 stocks due to an upward revision in the eligibility thresholds.
Certain changes in the past two or three years could have a long-term structural impact on the IT services market.
Will allowing business correspondents to hawk insurance products help in reviving 5-lakh strong field agents as a viable channel?
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
The Indian IT services sector is staring at a second consecutive year of muted revenue growth due to modest increase in tech spends in Europe and the US, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday. Crisil Ratings said it expects the sector to grow at 5-7 per cent in FY25, after a growth of 6 per cent estimated to have been achieved in FY24. The overall industry size is pegged at $250 billion and it creates over 50 lakh direct jobs.
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